USA - Presidential primaries :Trump’s paradox: more voters, less party support

Trump was running against himself in West Virginia and Nebraska on Tuesday and won. He got a 75% in West Virginia and a 60,8% in Nebraska, where the local Governor Sasse is a vocal critic.

The Nebraska Governor is not Trump’s sole critic. The billionaire is now fighting a two front war, one to rally voters and one to keep enough of the Republican Party behind him.

a small victory with two twists

Trump is the only candidate standing after one-by-one nine other candidates have been dropping out. Trump will secure the nomination of the Republican Party.

The result did matter. Trump is now 100 delegates away from securing the 1,237 delegates required to securing the nomination from the first round of voting in Cleveland this July, outright. That too looks all by certain to happen now.

In winning big, Trump is making a statement to the Republican party elite that is still refusing to endorse him. But, his major victory in Virginia is also telling of Trump’s core constituency, which is white and blue collar. But, the twist in Trump’s victory can be summarized as follows: the blue collar constituency is neither certain nor enough.

Twist no.1: parallel tracks with Sanders

Exit polls suggest that little less than half (39%) of Bernie Sanders voters in West Virginia will eventually vote Trump in November; 9% would vote for Clinton. In fact, there was a local gubernatorial primary and Republican voters turning up might have been tempted to vote against Hillary Clinton, or so Huffington Post suggests.

What is clear is that Sanders and Trump are strong among blue-collar white working class in declining industries, such as coal mining. West Virginia is the poorest state in the United States. Framed otherwise, Sanders is effective against Trump because he is eating into his core constituency in a way Clinton can’t. These are the voters worried about their economic security.

The Sanders’ voters do not come from a pool of usual Democratic voters in a state that votes Republican for 20 years. But, while new voters should be welcome, no Democratic aspirant can hope to swing West Virginia. This is safe Republican turf. Or is it?

Twist no.2: Winning the blue collar vote is not enough for Sanders, or Trump

When Donald Trump won Indiana on May 3^rd, Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Reince Priebus declared him “presumptive nominee” and called for party unity. Since, there has been anything but unity among Republicans.

For one, House Speaker Paul Ryan told CNN he was “not ready” to endorse Trump. And he took the discussion to places Trump will never go, that is, policy. Ryan wants to demolish welfare and shrink the state, which is bad news for Trump that is very much reliant on blue collar voters.

In fact, there may be two Republican parties running in November’s Presidential elections, of which Trump will be leading one. The “Republican B” party will be that of the Republican elite that is taking a stand against what Trump stands for. There is now talk of a “third party” challenge, besides a war of attrition that should be taken for granted.

This would have to happen soon. The deadlines to appear on ballots in Texas have already been missed, unless there is a litigation challenge. And a similar deadline expires in Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina, over the next few weeks. Time is against such a venture, but the intention shows how serious the backlash within the Republican party really is. Bottom line: independent candidates must at the very least produce 119,316 signatures endorsing their candidacy by July 15.

A third party campaign appears to have many, many potential donors. But, once a party splits, its hard to stich it back. And two Republican parties will make the other candidate look good, any day, everywhere. At the same time, Trump is not reaching out to his opponents in the Republican party he needs to mobilize to win over and beyond his core constituency. He is a good showman, but has yet to become a politician.

SOURCES : CNN, Reuters, Huffington Post, MSNBC, NBC